The yield curve is a graphical representation that plots the interest rates of bonds with equal credit quality but varying maturity dates. A normal yield curve slopes upward, indicating higher ...

As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow's book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market's expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk ...

An inversion of the yield curve—a chart plotting returns on debt of various maturities—historically has been a sign that a recession is on the way.

Following the jobs report on Friday that showed job creation had deteriorated from “decent” to “weak,” yields dropped across the board, except for the 30-year yield, which ticked up. Yields are now ...

North American yield curves are experiencing the steepest inversion of the last 3 decades, while European yield curves have flattened significantly in 2022. In the world of fixed income investing, ...

In my 50-plus years of running money, I’ve noticed that the biggest market moves come from factors that have gone unnoticed – and right now, there’s a doozy lurking under the table. Amid all the ...

Later in this article, I will display a chart revealing a consistent pattern of when a recession is most likely to begin. From a trader's viewpoint, pattern recognition is essential for successful ...

Yield curves plot bond yields against their maturities, helping predict economic trends. Inverted yield curves suggest potential economic downturns, impacting investment choices. Understanding yield ...

A yield curve is a graphical way to compare the yield on similar loans with different maturities. Several factors determine the course of the yield curve, including inflation expectations, liquidity, ...

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